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The Texas Bellwether

A look at the candidates in the upcoming Texas Primary & how this eclipse primary may shape the tone of American politics heading into 2028.

Nicole Stark's avatar
Nicole Stark
Mar 02, 2026
∙ Paid

Happy Sunday.

This eclipse season certainly has not disappointed as an important seed moment, as the foundation for the new world is laid out before our eyes. I began working on this project before the new war with Iran, thinking about how this election season, beginning on an eclipse, would be a major focal point in the news cycle. As much as I would love to play “follow the money” with Trump’s chart and this new situation in the Middle East, I will leave that for next time, in my Q1 wrap-up and Q2 forecasts.

For now, let’s dive into this election season. Since it would be too much to go through all three elections happening on this day — Arkansas, South Carolina, and Texas — I am focusing on the latter. As a former Texan, I am so excited about this particular race, as Texas may turn blue for the first time since 1988. At least in terms of the Senate race, which is the focus of our exploration today.

When we look at the charts of the leading candidates, a clear pattern emerges. This pri…

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